I am currently working on the following projects:
Ballot Stuffing: A Nonparametric Structural Approach with Kadir Atalay
We develop a nonparametric structural framework to identify and measure ballot stuffing, the illegal addition of ballots that inflates turnout and election results. Our framework separates unobserved polling station heterogeneity from ballot stuffing by combining rank-based identification with a cleaner auxiliary subsample, such as polling stations monitored by independent observers or covered by credible exit polls. The approach delivers polling-station-level estimates (or informative bounds when the auxiliary data are imperfect) and can be aggregated to construct counterfactual election outcomes under broader monitoring. We illustrate the approach using the 2011 Russian parliamentary election and document substantial heterogeneity in estimated ballot stuffing across and within regions.
Causal Persuasion with Egor Starkov
We propose a model of causal persuasion, where a receiver is aware of a subset of real-world variables and their distribution, and tries to infer causal relationships. A better-informed sender knows the full causal graph and selectively reveals additional variables to persuade the receiver about some causal relationship. We show that persuasion is only possible when the receiver's model conflicts with the true causal structure. To reveal a true causal link, the sender often needs to disclose just one or two well-chosen variables. But to dispel a perceived link--to convince the receiver there is no causal relationship--every common cause must be disclosed. Our results highlight a fundamental asymmetry in persuasion: It is much easier to prove a connection than to disprove one.
Balancing Act: Quasi-Experimental Evidence on the Role of Non-Monetary Job Characteristics in Pension Reforms with Kadir Atalay and Ellen Stuart
We study the role of non-monetary job characteristics in mediating the impact of pension reforms on labour supply. We examine a reform that increased the eligibility age for Age Pension, the first pillar of the Australian Pension System. We find that non-monetary elements of the work environment significantly influence retirement decisions. Individuals who self-report low engagement and stability in their job are more likely to extend their working years in response an increase in the Age Pension eligibility age, while those in more demanding occupations have weaker retirement responses. Our results contribute to the discussion about potential distributional effects of pension reform.