I am currently working on the following projects:
Ballot Stuffing: A Nonparametric Structural Approach with Kadir Atalay --- Revise and resubmit at The Economic Journal
We develop a nonparametric structural framework to identify and measure ballot stuffing, the illegal addition of ballots that inflates turnout and election results. Our framework separates unobserved polling station heterogeneity from ballot stuffing by combining rank-based identification with a cleaner auxiliary subsample, such as polling stations monitored by independent observers or covered by credible exit polls. The approach delivers polling-station-level estimates (or informative bounds when the auxiliary data are imperfect) and can be aggregated to construct counterfactual election outcomes under broader monitoring. We illustrate the approach using the 2011 Russian parliamentary election and document substantial heterogeneity in estimated ballot stuffing across and within regions.
Causal Persuasion with Egor Starkov --- new version!
Correlation is not causation... until the right variables are on the table. We propose a model of causal persuasion, in which a sender selectively discloses variables alongside a subjective causal model linking them. Persuasion requires that the model rules out rival explanations, on top of being consistent with the underlying data distribution. To establish a causal link, the sender often needs to disclose at most two well-chosen variables, whereas dispelling a perceived link, every common cause must be disclosed. This highlights a fundamental asymmetry: Establishing causality is often much easier than ruling it out.
Balancing Act: Quasi-Experimental Evidence on the Role of Non-Monetary Job Characteristics in Pension Reforms with Kadir Atalay and Ellen Stuart
We study the role of non-monetary job characteristics in mediating the impact of pension reforms on labour supply. We examine a reform that increased the eligibility age for Age Pension, the first pillar of the Australian Pension System. We find that non-monetary elements of the work environment significantly influence retirement decisions. Individuals who self-report low engagement and stability in their job are more likely to extend their working years in response an increase in the Age Pension eligibility age, while those in more demanding occupations have weaker retirement responses. Our results contribute to the discussion about potential distributional effects of pension reform.